To The Barricades!

It's been a very busy two weeks since I last wrote (okay, three). Holidays, visitors, etc etc.

Meanwhile one or two things seem to be happening in Central Asia. Some minor political player... let's see, what was her name, oh yeah, Benazir Bhutto was murdered by any of the following: 1) an al Qaida fanatic who shot her and then made her bang her head on her sunroof; 2) an al Qaida fanatic who shot her, blew her up, and then she hit her head on the sunroof as she was falling; 3) an al Qaida fanatic with either the direct approval of Musharraf or at least his deliberate non-interference, murdered her.

Pakistan has been remarkably quiet. I don't know if it's because there is no clear successor (her 19 year old son may well have the smarts but does not have experience -- he's a college kid, for crissakes!)or the Pakistani people have come to expect a coup as the usual method of a change in government.

Be that as it may, only the most naive optimists expect Pakistan to stay peaceful and stable of the coming year or so. It's 5:1 odds that if Musharraf loses te February elections, he will declare them invalid and stay in power.

Musharraf doesn't have the luxury of, say, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan, where the national leaders (dictators) have complete control of the country. (As one writer said about the late Saparmurat Niyazov, "Turkmenistan has a one-man, one vote policy. Niyazov is the man, and he has the vote." So while Musharraf could declare martial law, suspend the constitution, and shut the country down, it will be a hard trick to manage with the US looking closely at it.

We spend far too little time learning about and studying Central Asia. If, by some miracle, we withdraw from Iraq with a minimum of follow-on bloodbath, how long will it be before another Niyazov rises in these countries with large amounts of natural resources and abject poverty.

The West needs to start riding the Silk Road again.